I
have not felt motivated to blog in over four months. And most prior
topics have been event or issue driven. I have mostly eschewed using
this venue for political musing. But with no class to absorb my
venting this Spring, I thought I'd break tradition and share a few of
the voices I entertain in my head.
I
can think of scenarios where Donald Trump winning the Republican
nomination if not the presidency could end up being something other
than a “worst case scenario” (my personal designation as an
extinct political moderate).
- Trump has voiced some positions on some issues that are not consistent with the far right drift of his party in recent years. To the extent that his policy thoughts are more moderate, this could produce interesting clashes with a Republican controlled Congress if that is what is elected along with him. For example, what Congress is going to pass Trump's tax reform ideas? Maybe a Democratic Congress, but surely not anything like the current 114th. And how will Trump enforce his immigration control notions? As I understand them, they will require some international treaties or agreements. They would also require Congressional agreements if not highly contentious executive orders.
- In fact, some of the most extreme Teaparty Republicans might not win their Congressional seats with Trump as the top name on the party ticket. That is to say that the Congress elected along with Trump would possibly differ from a Cruz or Rubio Congress.
- One policy area that could become “worst case scenario”-involves the third branch of government, the judiciary. Who would Trump agree to “hire” onto the Supreme Court? How would the confirmation process go with the next Senate? And what about all the other federal judgeships? Would he throw some bones to Senate Republicans and senior Republican House members? Or would there be Apprentice-like scenarios to select loyal judges?
- And what would the Executive Branch look like under Trump? Would he eschew typical Republican insiders to run State, Defense, Treasury and Justice? If so, who would these “best and brightest” he picked instead be and how would they get confirmed?
- So to the extent that I think of myself an objective outside observer I say, bring it on. Something has to step up and replace Downton Abbey. As a teacher of political processes, it would certainly be interesting to watch and analyze.
3 comments:
And who would have thought that neither party's nomination would be decided prior to the New York and California primaries. Shades of '68, huh?
Looking back and reading last year's item here I see my foresight as probably more wrong than right. Fourteen months ago I really didn't see any likelihood of Trumps winning the presidency. But I nevertheless offered a few thoughts into what his administration would look like. His Supreme Court pick was pretty much a status quo scenario in terms of replacing Scalia. While he just barely named cabinet nominees by his 100 day anniversary, those selections have been as I suggested. He bent over backward to avoid going with career bureaucrats or Washington insiders. But he seems to be trying too hard to make clean breaks with all past policies of all prior administrations, and especially the Obama years. This is causing some obvious international heartburn.
The most troubling aspect of recent events and trends is what the Trump presidency is doing to Congress. Disemboweling the Senate's filibuster rules is a change that should not be rushed. But the current president cares not for the constitutional balance of powers among the three branches
Looking back and reading last year's item here I see my foresight as probably more wrong than right. Fourteen months ago I really didn't see any likelihood of Trumps winning the presidency. But I nevertheless offered a few thoughts into what his administration would look like. His Supreme Court pick was pretty much a status quo scenario in terms of replacing Scalia. While he just barely named cabinet nominees by his 100 day anniversary, those selections have been as I suggested. He bent over backward to avoid going with career bureaucrats or Washington insiders. But he seems to be trying too hard to make clean breaks with all past policies of all prior administrations, and especially the Obama years. This is causing some obvious international heartburn.
The most troubling aspect of recent events and trends is what the Trump presidency is doing to Congress. Disemboweling the Senate's filibuster rules is a change that should not be rushed. But the current president cares not for the constitutional balance of powers among the three branches
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